The big losers: Iran and Turkey

"The 12-day war - or perhaps the First Iran War - did not entirely eliminate the Iranian cancer threatening to metastasize across the region. But the blows Israel, with US backing, dealt Tehran have, for now, halted Iran's nuclear race and delivered a major setback to its ambition of establishing a zone of influence stretching from its borders through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and the shores of Gaza. From this corridor, the Iranians sought to advance their vision of destroying the State of Israel, a vision that inspired Yahya Sinwar to conceive and execute the deadly October 7 terrorist assault.

With Iran's defeat, the reconfiguration of the Middle East has been completed. It began with the dismantling of Hamas as a regular military force and governing entity in the Gaza Strip, continued with Hezbollah's heavy losses in Lebanon and the downfall of Bashar Assad in Syria, and now includes the return of the Iranian genie to its bottle. Iran, which even in its own eyes was seen as a powerful regional force capable of deterring and threatening its neighbors, has been severely wounded. It has been exposed as a vulnerable, infiltrated, and weak state that can barely defend itself. In that sense, the war has returned it to its natural proportions - a country whose leaders talk a lot, but have very little to back their words."

*The opinions expressed in MDC publications are the authors’ alone.