In September of 2023, as the Abraham Accords reached their third anniversary, there was much to celebrate, at least in some parts of the Middle East. The historic economic and defense agreements signed between the member states began to show dividends, painting a picture of a more prosperous, peaceful, and stable region. In 2023, trade between Israel and the Abraham Accords nations exceeded $4 billion USD. More notably, despite Israel’s 12% decrease in total trade over the first 9-months of 2023, its trade with its Abraham Accords partners increased by over 24%. The region saw further Arab-Israeli integration with the establishment of the Negev Forum and the "I2U2" UAE-US-Israel-India initiative, which have fostered collaboration in trade, diplomacy, defense, and energy. Although Saudi Arabia has not yet normalized relations with Israel, official visits and reports of advanced talks gave the impression that a deal was on the horizon. At the same time, Turkey, a member of NATO and a US ally, had begun to improve its relations with both Israel and the Gulf, marking a broader circle of regional alignment.
At the Moshe Dayan Center, and specifically in our Program for Regional Cooperation, our work began to reflect the sentiments of collaboration, integration, and connectivity felt in the region. The Center partnered with five institutions in the region to convene the first of a series of annual conferences exploring New Regionalism and the emerging agenda of partnership in the Middle East. These partnerships exemplified the new paradigm of regional dynamics, as our partners saw themselves as true stakeholders, investing both time and resources, a reality largely unachieved by previous Israeli-Arab partnerships in the region.
Immediately following the signing of the Abraham Accords, public sentiment towards Israel in the Gulf reached a peak. While there was widespread opposition to "normalization" across parts of the region, citizens in the UAE and Bahrain largely expressed support for the new regional framework. The Accords not only facilitated government-to-government collaboration but also fostered closer people-to-people ties. Initiatives like the opening of the Abrahamic Family House, the influx of Israeli tourists to the Gulf, and emerging business ventures with Israeli companies further bolstered public backing. However, skepticism persisted as Gulf citizens awaited tangible benefits from the Accords, particularly in terms of positive outcomes for the Palestinians.
This progress, however, seemed to come to a tragic and sudden halt on October 7th, 2023, when the tension between brothers and cousins that always existed now moved to the streets. The heinous Hamas attacks and the Israeli military response shook the region, revealing several challenges yet to be properly addressed by the new regional paradigm. The region was once again consumed by the violence and destruction of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the discourse was dominated by those who reject the trends of partnership, and promulgate hostility, terror, and hate, as well as support rogue resistance efforts throughout the region. Nevertheless, even within this new context, the regional arena and the partnership agenda had far from disappeared.
While many of the partnerships, particularly those related to civil society and people-to-people dynamics have scaled back significantly, it is evident that the region has been playing a growingly important role in managing the conflict. On the ground, diplomacy was operating in high gear as Israel’s Abraham Accords partners were the first international allies to lead humanitarian efforts in Gaza, with the UAE opening a field hospital and providing significant humanitarian aid. The regional partners quickly became the main mediators and negotiators in the attempts to end the war, reach a ceasefire, and deal with the sensitive issues of hostages and captives. In an effort to prevent further escalation and destruction, on April 14th, the US, Israel, and their Arab partners managed to successfully intercept 99% of a massive barrage of rockets and drones fired at Israel by Iran.
This publication, presented at the beginning of 2025, more than 15 months into the conflict, is an effort to examine the current state of the regional agenda on the background of the Gaza War, and the larger regional conflagration it has sparked. Recognizing that following the accords, regional dynamics became ever more relevant to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this publication also attempts to analyze various efforts and initiatives regarding the rebuilding of Gaza. The articles in this publication envision a "day after" that will enable the region to again move away from conflict and towards connectivity.
In bringing together experts from across the region, including Israeli, Palestinian, Saudi, Emarati, and Bahraini contributors, we seek to explore what remains of the regional agenda and how it might contribute to drafting a "day after" plan that seeks to end the war in Gaza and restore a partnership agenda in the Middle East.
The publication touches on some of the key aspects at the core of the regional agenda:
Looking at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Nir Boms (Israel) and Sarah Aweidah (PA) propose a new paradigm for discourse on a possible solution for the Israeli-Palestinian question. Through historical lenses, the article lays the groundwork for a 4.0 version of an Israeli and Palestinian future, further integrated with the moderate states of the region. As Israeli and Palestinian writers, they seek to chart a way forward that frames a possible joint vision for a "day after" that is based on new leadership, new beginnings, and new assumptions.
Examining education and its role in shaping the new era of regionalism, Eldad Pardo (Israel) and Najat al Said (Saudi/UAE), both analyze the region’s various textbooks and educational philosophies, examining how they contribute to the political agendas and visions of the states in question. Despite their different angles and perspectives, these two articles offer thoughts as to how the educational systems, both in Gaza, and in the wider region, must be reformed and realigned with the trajectory of peace and coexistence in the context of "day after" plans.
In this conflict especially, the new age of social media has had a tremendous impact on the narratives and perceptions of the war, many of them challenging the assumptions of the partnership agenda. Mohammed Al Sayed (Bahrain) looks at both traditional media and social media in the Arabic language, examining how organizations, influencers, and other social media trends have shaped the discourse surrounding the war.
Economy and trade has been a core component of the agenda. Josh Krasna (Israel) examines the economic progression which, although showing significant bilateral progress, had thus far failed to rise to the challenge of "regionalism" and produce multistate collaborations, despite those being planned. This angle points on a weakness in the regionalism framework that has not yet reached real ripeness.
Discussions for Saudi-Israel normalization had been the most significant development of the new partnership agenda in the Middle East in the period before October 7th. Mujtaba Isani (Saudi/Pakistani) analyzes the Saudi response to the reemergence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and its ramifications on the Saudi approach to cooperation with Israel.
Building on the historic insights of Ibn Khaldun, Einat Levi (Israel) presents a new model of "City Diplomacy" as a potential key to future progress within the framework of regionalism. She examines Abu Dhabi, Haifa, and Essaouira as symbols of engagement rooted in more stable foundations, resilient to national-level conflicts, and potentially beneficial for discussions regarding the reintegration of Gaza into the region.
Nir Boms and Stephen Cohen analyze the recent events in Syria following Bashar Al-Assad’s departure from Damascus on December 7th. While the idea of building a new "Syrian national project" based on a power sharing model which considers the interests and concerns of Syria’s diverse groups would be supportive to the regional partnership agenda, the feasibility of such a project is quite low. Recent events have shown that Syria may once again spiral into further division and conflict. Nevertheless, opportunities for cooperation and positive connectivity with the moderate forces should be utilized as Syria charts its new trajectory.
As we write these lines, the first stage of ceasefire and hostage deal is taking shape in Gaza. Yet, the regional war continues to rage. In a lightning offensive, Syrian rebels led by Ahmed al-Sharaa of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, captured Damascus in under two weeks and toppled the Assad regime. As the events in Syria continue to unfold and the leaders of the rebellion chart a new trajectory for Syria’s political reality, many challenges and opportunities will be presented to the regional agenda. It is clear that the changing power dynamics in the region, most notably the weakening of the Iranian axis, played a significant role in the success of the uprising. While it may be hard to say that the agenda of connectivity is prevailing, a closer look shows that opportunities exist here as well.
If you look beyond the fog of war, one could argue that the trajectory of regional connectivity and integration is progressing just as rapidly, if not faster than it was previously, driven by the urgent need to contain the ongoing conflict. This was the case in April and again in September, when the region found itself working together to foil Iranian attacks on Israel. This is also evident in the fact that flights from Israel to the Gulf are among the few still operating, even as all other international airlines have ceased flying to Ben Gurion Airport. As the authors have argued in the pages that follow, an ambitious agenda that focuses on education, economy, and regional partnership is still at play even amidst one of the lowest points of conflict in the region. While the moment in the region reflects a growing conflagration, it is important to note that the partnership agenda is still at work, seeking a path for a better "day after."
We would like to express our heartfelt gratitude to our partners at the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, notably Keren Adatto and Michael Rimmel, for all of your help at every stage of the process. We would also like to thank the team at the Moshe Dayan Center’s Program for Regional Cooperation, namely Joelle Rosenthal, Anna Perlman, and Samuel Kunin for their assistance in bringing this publication to light.
*This article is part of Regional Cooperation in the Midst of Regional Conflagration: Examining the Partnership Agenda in the Shadow of October 7th.
**For a full version of this article that includes source citations, please see the original publication file.