A comprehensive survey of the Arab community ahead of the Knesset elections:
- Expected Arab voter turnout – 59.7%.
- The Joint List (Hadash-Balad-Ta’al) will receive 8.3 seats from the Arab community while the United Arab List (Ra’am) will receive 4 and the Likud will receive 1.6.
- The most qualified candidate for prime minister is Benjamin Netanyahu (24.9%) followed by Ahmad Tibi (14.3%), Yair Lapid (13.9%) and Ayman Odeh (11.7%).
- Half of the Arab voters (46%) support the participation of an Arab party in any government that forms after the elections.
The rate of voter turnout in the Arab community in the approaching 24th Knesset elections is expected to be 59.7%, which is somewhat lower than in the 23rd Knesset elections (64.8%), which were held a year ago.
The Arab voters are expected to award 8.3 seats to the Joint List (Hadash-Balad-Ta’al) led by Ayman Odeh, 4 to the United Arab List (Ra’am) led by Mansour Abbas and 1.6 to the Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Meretz, Yesh Atid and Ma’an-Yahad (led by Mohammad Darawshe) are expected to get about one-half of a seat each.
The most qualified candidate for prime minister is Benjamin Netanyahu (24.9% of the survey respondents) followed by Ahmad Tibi (14.3%), Yair Lapid (13.9%) and Ayman Odeh (11.7%). Other candidates include Mansour Abbas (4.7%), Gideon Sa’ar (4.6%) and Benny Gantz (2.4%). At the same time, 10% currently feel that there is no candidate worthy of being prime minister.
About one-half (46%) of the respondents feel that it in order to achieve benefits for the Arab community, an Arab party should join any coalition that emerges after the elections; 18.0% condition their agreement on the coalition being from the Center-Left. About 21.3% of the respondents are in favor of an Arab party supporting the government from outside (to block no-confidence motions) in exchange for benefits for the Arab community. Only 13.0% feel that there are no conditions under which an Arab party should join the government or support it from the outside.
The most important issue for the Arab members of Knesset (MKs) to focus on following the elections is the implementation of the government plan to combat violence in Arab society (58.6% of the respondents), which provides the background for the low level of confidence (1.9 on a scale of 1 to 5) that the government will indeed implement the plan that it announced last month. Other important issues include the amendment of discriminatory laws such as the Nation-State Law and the Kamenitz Law (16.9%), a new program for the economic development of Arab towns (8.8%) and the integration of young Arab NEETS (“not in education, employment or training”) within the labor market and in higher education (7.4%).
One-half of the Arab community (48.5%) are convinced that increasing the number of Arab parties running in the elections, in addition to the Joint List, will not contribute to Arab politics. In contrast, 24.1% are convinced that the dispersion in the map of Arab parties contributes to Arab politics.
A large majority (82.5%) of the respondents are in favor of Arab women playing a central role in the political arena.