A comprehensive survey of Arab voters ahead of the Knesset elections:
- Expected Arab voter turnout - 49%.
- Hadash-Ta'al is expected to receive 4.1 seats based on Arab voters, Ra'am - 3.7, Balad - 3.2, Likud - 1.3.
- 34.2% of the Arab public believe that there is no qualified candidate for prime minister, while Benjamin Netanyahu receives the highest rating (18.6%).
- Half of Arab voters (46.8%) support the participation of an Arab party in any government that forms after the elections, while 53.4% believe that Ra'am experience in the coalition was not successful.
Highlights:
The expected voter turnout in the Arab community in the approaching 25th Knesset elections is 49%, slightly higher than that in the previous elections (44.6%). The expected turnout according to the current survey is significantly higher than that found in a similar survey conducted prior to the election campaign.
Of the three Arab lists, only Hadash-Ta’al is expected to exceed the electoral threshold with 4.1 seats (based on Arab voters); Ra’am is expected to receive 3.7 seats which is somewhat under the threshold; and Balad is expected to receive only 3.2 seats and thus will likely not exceed the electoral threshold. With respect to Arab votes going to the Jewish parties, Likud is expected to receive 1.3 seats, Meretz is expected to receive half a seat, and Yesh Atid is expected to receive one-third of a seat.
About one-third of the Arab community (34.2%) believes that there is currently no qualified candidate for prime minister. Among the rest of the respondents, Benjamin Netanyahu is the leading candidate (18.6%), followed by Sami Abu Shehadeh (6.6%), Ahmad Tibi (6.3%), Mansour Abbas (4.8%), Yair Lapid (4.7%), Benny Gantz (3.2%), and Ayman Odeh (3.0%).
The performance of the Bennett-Lapid government on issues of importance to the Arab community received very low marks, particularly on economic wellbeing, personal security, and residential planning and construction. About 40.9% of the participants believe that the situation of the Arab population has worsened during the term of the Bennett-Lapid government, while 44% believe that it remained unchanged. Only 13% believe that it improved.
About one-half (46.8%) of the respondents feel that an Arab party should join any coalition that forms after the elections in order to improve the situation of the Arab community while 15.6% condition that on the coalition being from the Center-Left. Meanwhile, 22.3% feel that there are no conditions under which an Arab party should join the government or support it from outside the coalition. On the other hand, about half of the Arab public (53.4%) believe that Ra’am’s experience as part of the government coalition was not successful, while 37.7% believe it was.