Considerations of Arab voters in the upcoming 26th Knesset elections

Summary

The problem of violence and crime has become an existential issue in the eyes of Arab voters, and they will support any party that promises a timely solution to the problem. The urgency of the situation will likely motivate Arab citizens to take greater responsibility for their fate and therefore should increase their participation in the elections.

The Arab voter would like to see the Arab parties run as a joint list. Such a list could increase voter turnout in Arab society with the potential of forming the third largest bloc in the next Knesset. The Joint List did indeed increase Arab representation in the Knesset in the past, but it did not achieve any tangible results.

There is a strong desire in Arab society for the Arab parties to join a government coalition given that this is the only way to influence decision-making. Nationalistic clichés no longer have an effect on the Arab public which is focused on day-to-day problems: poverty, personal security, housing, and employment.

The decision whether to vote among Arab citizens is not influenced by the Israeli discourse over the establishment of a commission of inquiry into the events of October 7th or the sharing of societal burdens, since these are issues that do not directly affect them.

The elections for the 26^th Knesset, expected to be held this year, may emerge as one of the defining events in Israeli politics, particularly in the case of the Arab sector. The results of the elections will largely determine its fate and will serve as a roadmap for what lies ahead. There is no doubt that the Arab voter’s considerations in these elections will range from day-to-day economic issues to future strategic considerations on the national level, as well as considerations relating to personal safety and security, as is the case for every citizen of the country. In this article, I will outline the options facing the Arab voters and attempt to explain the importance of their active participation in influencing Israeli politics at both the local and regional levels. First, we must answer the simple, almost trivial question: What is important to the contemporary Arab voter?

It is widely recognized that the Arab public feels genuinely threatened by the unrelenting violence and crime occurring daily, and in some cases hourly, in Arab cities and towns. The year opened with a relatively high number of murders in Arab society (more than 20 in January 2026)^[1] and shooting incidents that claimed a heavy toll in human lives. This ongoing situation constitutes a real threat to the life of the average Arab citizen. The sense of insecurity permeates every alley and street, every public discussion and even every family conversation. Accordingly, the Arab voter will support any party that promises a timely solution to this problem. At present, the Ra’am party appears to be promising such a solution, and it intends to join any future government under the right conditions. According to Ra’am’s leaders, this will make it possible to influence decision-making in the fight against crime.

The data show that during the “government of change” (Bennett–Lapid) there was a decline in crime levels and in the number of murder victims—from 126 in 2021 to 116 in 2022 (according to data from the Abraham Initiatives organization).^[2] This can be explained by pressure on the government from coalition members to increase efforts to fight organized crime. This demonstrates that addressing crime requires political will and decision-making, including efforts across a variety of domains—the economy, education, etc. For example, channeling budgets into education raises the academic achievements of youth; however, budgets must also be allocated to informal education activities, as well as for business development and encouraging employment in the Arab sector. All of these efforts can reduce unemployment and lift families out of poverty, and all are dependent on the government’s decisions. Accordingly, during the upcoming Knesset election campaign Ra’am can be expected to focus on the budgets directed toward Arab society—budgets which, according to Ra’am’s representatives, reached about 30 billion shekels during the “government of change.”^[3] It is worth noting that a significant proportion of that amount was cut for various reasons immediately after the formation of the current right-wing government.

Moreover, the Arab voter is currently in favor of unification of all the Arab parties, whether as a joint list, a technical list, or a full union. Recently, under public pressure following the mass demonstration in Sakhnin held on January 22, it was announced that unification would occur, even though party leaders hinted that the unification was not achieved easily and that difficulties might arise in the future. The parties agree that only the establishment of a joint list will increase voter turnout among the Arab public; however, party interests and other considerations may pose a significant obstacle to a joint list over time. Currently, it is proposed that such a list be defined as technical and that it be allowed to split immediately after the elections. Such a list has the potential to increase voter turnout and thus enable the Arab bloc to become the third largest in the Knesset, as it was after the 2020 elections. Party leaders in that Knesset understood the distress of Arab society and acted responsibly and in accordance with the public’s will. Nevertheless, some argue that it is still not possible to determine with certainty that the new Joint List will indeed endure. The vague statements of party leaders, with the exception of Mansour Abbas, still do not signal that the Joint List in its new format will indeed be established, since not all disputed issues have been resolved. The challenges facing it have not yet been addressed, foremost among them the distribution of seats among the Joint List’s members, and above all it has not yet been decided who will head the Joint List.

The Arab public views the past experience of the Joint List as only a limited success, mainly in terms of representation in the Knesset and also as a symbol of national unity; at the same time, it views that experience as a decisive failure in terms of achievements. The prevailing claim made today is that although the Joint List included 15 members and was the third largest list following the 2020 elections, it did not achieve the desired results: it did not eradicate violence, did not stop home demolitions in the Negev, and did not improve the economic situation of Arab citizens. In addition, after Mansour Abbas decided to embark on his new path (al-Nahj al-Jadid in Arabic) further internal fragmentation occurred and unprecedented insults were exchanged between members of the parties. In the 2021 elections, the Joint List included three parties— Hadash, Balad, and Ta’al—but it still could not maintain unity, even though its members claimed that agreement on a political platform had been reached. The truth is that what united—and later fragmented—the list was narrow party interests and sometimes even personal interests. This led to its dissolution shortly before the 2022 elections, which led to Balad running independently in those elections, and resulted in the loss of Balad’s votes. Some argue that Balad’s decision to run independently stemmed from considerations of ego and a dispute over the sixth seat on the three-party Joint List, while others are convinced that Balad is still led by Azmi Bishara who resides in Qatar, and that he contributed to the breakup of the three-party list. Either way, the fact is that this split contributed to the rise of the right-wing parties: Balad did not pass the electoral threshold, lacking only a few thousand votes to do so, and thus 138,000 Arab votes went to waste.

According to the prevailing discourse today in Arab society, there is a strong desire among the Arab public to participate in future governments, which is considered the only way to influence political decisions. This discourse is also reflected in polls: a survey by the Konrad Adenauer Program in November 2025 showed that 77% of the Arab public are in favor of an Arab party joining the coalition after the next elections.^[4]

It appears that clichés related to the situation on the national level no longer influence the Arab public; rather it is the issues that they confront on a daily basis that concerns them: poverty, the sense of insecurity, home demolitions, the lack of housing and employment solutions for future generations. These are what keep Arab citizens up at night and deprive them of peace of mind. It is these issues that will determine their choice at the ballot box. It is also worth taking into account the liberal Jewish political parties that advocate equality and which may garner a significant portion of the Arab vote. They view the Arab sector as an important target audience that might identify with their political platform. It is no coincidence that Arab-Jewish movements have arisen (such as the “All Its Citizens” party and the “Standing Together” movement) which have participated in the demonstrations in Arab cities such as Sakhnin, Tamra, and Majd al-Krum, and which maintain ongoing dialogue with the Arab public. They realize that Arab citizens can increase their parties’ success in the elections if they are offered an attractive platform. However, in my opinion, they will also constitute an obstacle to replacing the current government, given that most polls predict that they have no chance of passing the electoral threshold, and therefore the votes of Arab voters who support them may go to waste. Thus, they remain an option of last resort within the narrow range of alternatives facing the Arab voter.

It is expected that the Arab public will participate in the next elections at an unprecedented level, given the threats to personal security, the demolition of homes, the low employment rate, and the economic situation which is particularly problematic in the Arab sector. Despair over the current government’s inability to provide immediate solutions to its problems will motivate many Arab citizens to vote and to take responsibility for their fate. The needs and hardships of the Arab sector will motivate its voters to choose alternatives that can serve its goal of living a normal life; however, giving up the right to participate politically will likely worsen its fragile situation. The Arab public is aware of its power at the ballot box, which is the only way to influence its political, social, and economic situation, and therefore it will not give that power up easily. It is worth noting that the Arab public’s trust in the Israeli democratic system has always been low, especially since most Jewish parties—including the center-left ones—now refuse to consider any possibility of Arab-Jewish partnership, claiming that they cannot rely on the support of Arab parties in a future coalition. Nevertheless, there is no alternative to exercising the Arab sector’s ability to influence decision-making, even if that influence is limited.

In a broader context, it must be said that Arab voters are not influenced by the general Israeli discourse surrounding the perceived reasons for the elections. For example, they are not interested in various issues discussed in the Israeli media, such as the establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7. Such a commission will not improve their situation as a national minority. In the current circumstances, this issue only concerns them if the commission’s conclusions lead to the desired result from their point of view—the replacement of the right-wing government. Similarly, the issue of judicial reform or the question of the ultra-Orthodox share of the burden are not paramount concerns for the Arab public. These issues do not directly affect Arab society, unless the issue of drafting Arab citizens again appears on the political agenda. They are considered secondary and insignificant in light of the grim situation in which Arab society finds itself. Perhaps in the future interest in such issues will develop, but for now there are other matters that trouble the Arab citizen.

In conclusion, all the internal reasons presented above, in addition to the geopolitical instability in the region, may motivate more Arab citizens to vote in the next elections. The prevailing feeling among the Arab public is that the upcoming elections may determine the fate of the Arab population in Israel. Thus, Arab voters realize the importance of their vote and are confident in their ability to influence the policies of future governments. Is there any political figure capable of guiding this voice safely and rationally toward the realization of Arab voters’ aspirations? The politicians claim they can, but only time will tell.

Rani Hassan is an independent academic researcher and political commentator on issues concerning Arab society and Israeli society in general. He holds a master’s degree in Democracy Studies from the University of Haifa and serves as a lecturer in the Hebrew language and a civics teacher in several educational institutions around the country.

*The opinions expressed in MDC publications are the authors’ alone.