Integration and Influence: Survey of Arab Citizens in Israel
The expected voter turnout in the upcoming Knesset elections is 53%, but if the Joint List is reestablished, it will surge to a record 67%, and the party would win 16 seats in the Knesset.
77.2% of the respondents support the inclusion of an Arab party in the coalition to be formed after the next Knesset elections, and 63.7% believe in Arab-Jewish political partnership.
76.9% report a weak feeling of personal security and that their mood is low, mainly due to the high level of violence in Arab society and fears of renewed war in the region.
Most of the respondents positively view a political agreement with Lebanon (69.5%) and normalization with Saudi Arabia (67.4%) but most of them (64.4%) also condition this on resolving the Palestinian issue.
A large majority (75.8%) support allowing Arab high school graduates to volunteer for national civic service not related to security.
Main findings:
If the Knesset elections were held today, the expected turnout among Arab voters would be 53%, a level similar to that in the 25th Knesset elections (53.2%) held in November 2022. In this scenario, Hadash-Ta’al (5.3 seats) and Ra’am (4.6 seats) are expected to exceed the electoral threshold, while Balad is not (1.8 seats). In contrast, if the Joint List were reestablished as a union of the four Arab parties (Hadash, Ta’al, Ra’am, and Balad), as in the past, the expected voter turnout in Arab society would jump to 67%, the highest level reported in the Konrad Adenauer Program surveys. Such a turnout could give the Joint List 16.3 seats.
Many members of the Arab public (76.9% of the respondents) report a weak feeling of personal security. The main explanation is the high level of violence in Arab society (51.8%), alongside fears of the outbreak of a new war in the region (21.8%), economic hardship (8.6%), the situation of Palestinians in Gaza (7.4%), and family or personal problems (7.1%). In contrast, most respondents (68.3%) report that their overall economic situation is good.
A majority of the Arab public (59.4%) believe that the current state of relations between Arabs and Jews is not good. Nevertheless, most respondents (63.7%) stated that they believe in Arab-Jewish political partnership, although only 39.7% believe that there is genuine support for such political cooperation among the Jewish public.
Half of the respondents (53.3%) stated that their feeling of belonging to the State is strong overall. In contrast, 44.5% reported that it is weak. At the same time, most respondents (75.8%) support allowing Arab high school graduates to volunteer for national civic service not related to security.
A majority of the Arab public believe that a political agreement between Israel and Lebanon (69.5%) and normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia (67.4%) would be positive developments for the region. At the same time, most of them (64.4%) are convinced that resolving the Palestinian issue must be a prerequisite for such agreements. In addition, nearly half of the Arab public (46.4%) believe that two states based on the 1967 lines is the only realistic solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Only 18.7% believe that one state from the river to the sea, shared by Israelis and Palestinians, is the only realistic solution, while 7.1% are in favor of a regional solution through international mediation. In contrast, 21.4% believe that there is no solution on the horizon.
A large majority (77.2%) support the inclusion of an Arab party in the government to be formed after the next elections: 43.3% support joining any government that is formed, while 33.9% support joining a center-left government. These figures are similar to those of previous surveys conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Program over the past two years.